Nothing New in Poll Result

Himanshu Shekhar

   A lot of incorrect factual information is being circulated by different sources regarding this poll result. Major political parties, political analyst and mainstream media is looking happy on the emergence of new political trends in Indian politics.

Is it true? No one is trying to go through dipper analysis of poll result and without doing that we can’t get the real picture.

Political parties and mainstream media is saying that Bahubalis  has lost there ground and people voted against them but the fact is different. In 2004 there were 128 MPs with criminal record. According to a study of Election Watch, based on the affidavits of candidate, there are 150 newly elected MPs who have criminal records.

It means the number of MPs with criminal cases up by 17.2 percent. In 2004, there were 55 MPs with serious criminal cases. There are 72 newly elected MPs who have serious criminal records. It means the number of MPs with serious criminal cases gone up by 30.9 percent. So, it’s baseless to say that this election is the beginning of the end of the criminalization of Indian politics. In fact, the rate of change of a criminal to a politician is increasing day by day.

In this election most of old Bahubalis lost their ground. In this election new Bahubalis emerged on the political canvass of India. Sahabuddin, Surajbhan, Pappu Yadav and some others have bee barred by court to contest election. They filed their wives from their constituencies but people rejected them. In spite of that same approach of voters was not for new Bahubalis. We can take the example of Kameshwar Baitha. He won the election from Palamau of Jharkhand on the ticket of Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. In new Loksabha he is the MP who have the highest number of criminal cases against him.

Take the Second example from Jehanabad of Bihar. Jagdish Sharma of JD(U) won the seat. He is the number two MP who have most of the criminal cases. He is not a new player of politics. He was an MLA and managed to win a number of elections as an independent. So, it’s not fair to say that criminalization of politics is about to end.

Mainstream media was saying earlier that we are heading towards hung parliament but result is totally different. It’s true that neither a single party nor a pre poll alliance got majority but Congress led UPA was very close to majority and they have formed the government. A number of Political analysts are saying that people cast their vote on the issue of secularism.

That’s why Congress led UPA won and BJP led NDA lost. Is it true? Are they mean to say that every looser is communal? In fact, this election was not contested on the issue of secularism and communalism. In present political scenario not a single party can claim that they are secular. BJP has lost it’s ground that’s why Congress won. BJP and it’s allies have done very well in some states. It does not mean that the people of these states are communal and people of those states are secular who have casted their vote against BJP.

Political analysts are saying that the Congress party is back on track. Is it true? Congress won 206 seats out of 543 in this election. In 2004 they were at 145. In terms of seats Congress is looking as a big gainer but vote percentage is telling a different story. In 2009 Congress vote share went up by only two percent in comparison of 2004. It means, Congress won most of the seats because of fractured voting trends. So, it’s not fair to say that the golden era of Congress is back again.

Senior leaders of Congress as well as BJP are disseminating that Indian politics is going bipolar but it’s not true. A number of regional political parties has done well in their states. We can take the example of Mamta Banarjee. In West Bengal Congress and CPM are national parties but major chunk went to Trinmool Congress of Mamta Banarjee. Similarly, example of Bihar can be taken. JD(U) of Nitish Kumar has done well. DMK, BJD and NCP has done well in the election. The matter of fact is that national parties are not addressing the local issues. That’s why regional parties are performing well and remain doing so until national parties starts addressing local issues. Policies of mainstream political parties are anti poor and they are dancing on the tune of capitalists. This is the main reason behind the emergence of new political groups.

In 2004 the combined strength of Congress, BJP and Communist parties in lower house was 344. In 2009 they are at 346. It means there is no major gain in term of seats for major national political parties. As far as the matter of vote percentage is concerned, these three groups are looser. Their vote percentage fell by almost two percent in comparison of 2004. So, they have no moral right to say that this is the beginning of the new era of national political parties.

Each and every leader of Congress is saying that this is Rahul Gandhi factor which made a difference but it’s not true verbatim. Congress has done well in North India and in UP Congress gain is unexpected. Congress is saying that it’s Rahul decision to go solo in UP and Bihar, but this is totally wrong. In fact, Congress was trying it’s level best to be with it’s allies in these states but it was newly emerged fourth front who forced congress to go solo in these states. In UP Congress done well but we all know what happened in Bihar.

 In Bihar Congress managed to win only two seats. In last general election they were at three. This time only one sitting MP of Congress Meera Kumar managed to win from Sasaram of Bihar. Same thing happened in Jharkhand. Congress was forced to go solo by RJD and LJP. In Jharkhand Congress won only one seat. Where was Rahul effect in these states. Rahul Gandhi effect is the brainchild of those who are on the task of projecting him as the future Prime Minister of India.

Policy makers of congress are  saying they won because of NREGA and farm loan waiver. Again this is not true. Yuvraj of Congress Rahul Gandhi has said that only five paisa out of hundred paisa reach to beneficiaries as against 10 paisa during his father’s regime. Thus there is nothing new in the result of recent general election and old trends continues.

2 thoughts on “Nothing New in Poll Result

  1. Hi, Himanshu.

    It was great to see you writing again on this internet medium.

    Hopeful to read you rather more fluent in the coming times.

    God Bless.
    C U.

  2. Dear Mr Shekhar,

    After reading this post..i think that you are geralizing things in order to reach to a quick conclusion and getting things wrong. Points i would like to make :–
    A) “people of some states are secular( where UPA won) and other not”is a very quick judgmental statement which sounds more emotional rather than being rational.
    The verdict given by people of any state or any region depends on many factors like–
    i-The education level of that state
    ii-The number and kind of industries in that
    state, mmajor earing mode of people.
    iii-The caste equations, living style, and Socio-cultural-religious believes of the people.

    All these factors bring the diffrence in the voting pattern and trends of–say for example–Delhi and sasaram in Bihar.Ok..So people develop an inclination about any party and vote for it. Any major shift in voting pattern is only possible if–(a) education..exposure..knowledge level of people changes dramatically.
    (b) people get sick of the malfunctioning of one party so want to try out other one in search of some what happened in lalu gone and nitish in (Bihar) and Diggi gone-BJP in (MP).

    Point is–people cannot be categorized as u r secular and u r not so easily. Its a compex game dear and lot of factors work. We should not reach to such surfacial conclusions—and moreover ..this is not expected from a upcomming intellectual journalist -Himanshu Shekhar.

    Priyanka Dubey

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